CIO Office
Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.
Long-Term Investment Perspectives | Spring 2024
In this new semi-annual update, the anticipated annual return for a benchmark balanced portfolio over 5 years is 6.1%, which is similar to the realized return of 6.5% over the past 5 years. However, this forecast is lower than the 7.6% anticipated in the fall 2023 report. View long-term market expectations for major asset classes over a 5-year, 10-year and 30-year investment horizon, which form the basis of NBI’s strategic asset allocation and portfolio construction efforts.
Myths and Realities | As of March 29, 2024
Should investors fear recessions? Are GICs a risk-free alternative? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? These are some of the 19 common investment beliefs fact-checked and put into perspective by NBI's CIO Office.
Job done? | Asset Allocation Strategy | April 2024
As in 2023, the first quarter of 2024 turned out positively for stock markets, especially in the U.S., as the Fed maintained its rate-cutting intentions despite higher growth and inflation prospects. Does this mean the Fed's job is done?
Confusion on the tarmac | Base-Case Scenario | Spring 2024
Over a 12-month horizon, our base scenario still anticipates a gradual slowdown in inflation, accompanied by more turbulence for economic growth. In the shorter term, the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve is opening the door to rate cuts potentially as early as June could provide further grounds for optimism in equity markets for a few months yet.
Tactical asset allocation: Introducing NBAAM | Strategic report | April 2024
To guide its tactical asset allocation decisions, our CIO Office has been using the A3 model since 2018, the objective of which was to translate a series of macroeconomic and financial indicators into a risk-taking recommendation over a tactical horizon. This report introduces its successor, the NBAAM (National Bank Asset Allocation Model,) which offers broader coverage of global macroeconomic conditions through a distinctive methodology. |
What are the ripple effects from the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy? | Quick Take | March 13, 2023
Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.
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