Equity markets began the second quarter in turmoil, as the reciprocal tariffs announced by the White House on April 2 were so substantial that they threatened to derail the global economy. Fortunately, it didn't take long for the Trump administration to change course and adopt a more conciliatory tone, leading to a strong market rebound that overshadowed the initial decline. As a result, equities ended the quarter higher, with Canadian stocks leading the way, while returns elsewhere were tempered by a significant appreciation of the Loonie. Meanwhile, despite heightened uncertainty, the Canadian fixed income universe ended the period with slight losses as investors questioned the path ahead for interest rates.
In addition to the president's reversal on tariffs, renewed market optimism stems from the continued resilience of the U.S. economy; the labour market is still on track, corporate earnings remain relatively strong, and inflation shows no signs of re-accelerating so far. Furthermore, although there is still some underlying anxiety among consumers and businesses, confidence surveys have quietly begun to improve as the parameters of the White House's policy agenda become clearer.
In this regard, although the Trump administration's proposed tax cuts should begin to provide some stimulus to the economy starting at the end of the year, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” has been a source of disappointment for those hoping for a reversal of the unsustainable trajectory of U.S. federal debt, partly explaining the recent underperformance of government bonds.
In short, while uncertainty remains high, the gradual dissipation of the political fog is nevertheless revealing an improvement in the balance of risks compared to the last quarter. As such, we believe that the risks of a global recession have diminished, giving us greater confidence in our base case scenario of a modest economic slowdown. Moreover, beyond the trade agreements that the U.S. is hoping to announce in the coming months, we will also need to closely monitor the Federal Reserves' policy outlook, as a more dovish stance cannot be ruled out, provided that inflation continues to cooperate.
In this context, although the risk level of our asset allocation strategy remains moderate ahead of what is likely to be a volatile summer, we increased our equity allocation relative to bonds at the end of May. Within equities, we raised our allocation to emerging markets from underweight to neutral.