Has much of the storm passed?

31 August 2022 by National Bank Investments
NBI Insights Bulletin – September 2022

How the confirmation of the negative reduces uncertainty

Summer is nearing its end and investors are ready to pay attention once more to how markets have responded. Having a well-diversified portfolio is key for weathering recent unfavorable market conditions.

After months of losses for both stocks and bonds, investors finally enjoyed a break as most assets ended the period with gains.

Total return across asset classes

Yet, central banks continued to quickly hike their policy rates based on the most recent inflation figures.

US CPI: Main measures

It is not uncommon to see counter-trend rebounds when investor pessimism and oversold conditions reach extreme levels, as was the case for both stocks and bonds. There is also the fact that inflation figures are, first and foremost, a reflection of the past, while the markets are discounting machines focused on the future. And, in this regard, expectations are shifting quickly.

One side-effect of a strong US dollar

In addition, the impact of a relatively strong US dollar compared to other international currencies can be seen with the US Federal Reserve increasing interest rates faster than many other central banks. That in turn has consequences for some international companies who are bringing overseas profits back to the United States. A relatively strong dollar translates to international profits that are worth a little bit less, which acts as a headwind in terms of short-term profitability.

S&P 500 Earnings

Interpreting the clouds

The impact on share prices is much more diverse, and partly due to expectations. As Global equity markets tend to be forward looking, they have weakened, and so to an extent, some of these negatives have already been anticipated in share prices. Therefore, this confirmation of negative news is actually being taken as a positive as it is reducing uncertainty.

From an investor's point of view, this is quite a healthy and positive dynamic as it suggests we are moving through this period of uncertainty. It should be welcomed by those who are thinking about the medium and longer term and what life could look like after this current period of economic weakness. Staying invested through market downturns and maintaining a diversified portfolio is a tried-and-true approach to weather market storms.

See below for two of our featured solutions among the NBI Funds that could help you diversify your portfolio.

NBI Canadian Equity Growth Fund
The fund aims to provide investors with superior investment returns over the long term, having regard for the safety of capital. The fund invests in a diversified portfolio of primarily Canadian equities. It is expected that investments in foreign securities will not exceed approximately 49% of the fund's net assets.

Jarislowsky Fraser Select Income Fund
The fund's investment objective is to provide regular income and to achieve moderate capital growth by investing, directly or indirectly, in a diversified portfolio comprised primarily of Canadian fixed income and equity securities. The fund may invest approximately 30% of its assets in equity or fixed-income securities of foreign issuers.

Legal notes

The information and opinions herein are provided for information purposes only and are subject to change without notice. The opinions are not intended as investment advice nor are they provided to promote any particular investments and should in no way form the basis for your investment decisions. National Bank Investments Inc. has taken the necessary measures to ensure the quality and accuracy of the information contained herein at the time of publication. It does not, however, guarantee that the information is accurate or complete, and this communication creates no legal or contractual obligation on the part of National Bank Investments Inc.

The NBI Unconstrained Fixed Income Fund (the “Fund”) is offered by National Bank Investments Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of National Bank of Canada. JP Morgan Asset Management acts as sub-advisor for the Fund. Commissions, trailing commissions, management fees and expenses all may be associated with mutual fund investments. Please read the prospectus of the Fund before investing. The Fund’s securities are not insured by the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation or by any other government deposit insurer. The Fund is not guaranteed, its value changes frequently and past performance may not be repeated.

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