CIO Office 

Learn more about the markets, the economy and current trends in the financial industry.

Thumbnail of the section Long-Term Market Expectations

Myths and Realities | As of March 29, 2024

Should investors fear recessions? Are GICs a risk-free alternative? Are rate hikes bad for stocks? These are some of the 19 common investment beliefs fact-checked and put into perspective by NBI's CIO Office.

View the latest version

Thumbnail of the section Asset Allocation Strategy

Job done? | Asset Allocation Strategy | April 2024

As in 2023, the first quarter of 2024 turned out positively for stock markets, especially in the U.S., as the Fed maintained its rate-cutting intentions despite higher growth and inflation prospects. Does this mean the Fed's job is done?

View the latest version

Thumbnail of the section Base-case scenarios

Confusion on the tarmac | Base-Case Scenario | Spring 2024

Over a 12-month horizon, our base scenario still anticipates a gradual slowdown in inflation, accompanied by more turbulence for economic growth. In the shorter term, the fact that the U.S. Federal Reserve is opening the door to rate cuts potentially as early as June could provide further grounds for optimism in equity markets for a few months yet.

View the latest version

Thumbnail of the section Long-Term Market Expectations

Long-Term Investment Perspectives | As of September 30, 2023

Semi-annual report presenting our return expectations for major asset classes over the next 5 to 30 years, as well as a series of charts on broad market and economic trends. These projections form the basis of NBI’s strategic asset allocation and portfolio construction efforts.

View the latest version

Thumbnail of the section Strategic Reports

Replenishing the U.S. Treasury General Account – What impact on liquidity? | June 2023

The suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling implies a marked increase in the issuance of Treasury bills and bonds over the coming months. Some investors fear that it could drain liquidity from the financial system, representing a considerable headwind for risky assets. Are those fears justified?

Read the report

Thumbnail of the section Quick Takes

What are the ripple effects from the Silicon Valley Bank bankruptcy? | Quick Take | March 13, 2023

Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.

View the latest version