The U.S. stock market continued to display resilience in May, although a closer look shows this was mainly due to outperformance of a few tech giants against a backdrop of optimism about advances in artificial intelligence.
After reaching a maximum drawdown of -25% on October 12, the S&P 500 has begun an impressive recovery. Is this the beginning of a new bull market, or will the index eventually revisit its most recent low? To shed some light on this, we revisit last year’s Strategic Report on bear markets, but this time we focus specifically on the conditions that generally prevailed during the market bottoms of the past 60 years.
A guide to broad market and economic trends, our Flip Book should serve well as a reference guide for the busy investor. Make sure not to miss our Myths and Realities section, where we breakdown and debunk commonly held investment beliefs.
The highly volatile market environment that characterized most of 2022 continued into the first quarter of the new year, with economic data sending often contradictory messages. Read on for our latest quarterly base-case scenario, where we review the key market events of the past few months, our outlook for the coming quarter, and the key risks underlying these expectations.
Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.
Our annual Long-Term Market Expectations report presents our return and volatility forecasts for the next five years. These go on to form the basis of our Capital Allocation Line, an important input into NBI’s Strategic Asset Allocation and portfolio construction effort.