After a year marked by the resilience of the U.S. economy and stock markets, what can we expect for 2024? While economists were convinced that a recession was imminent 12 months ago, the consensus now seems to be that a soft landing is on the horizon. However, while rate hikes are visibly behind us, it's often the descent that's the riskiest phase.
With revealing charts and statistics, NBI’s CIO Office team fact checks many of the persistent investment beliefs. A practical reference guide for mindful investors, this semi-annual document provides perspective on financial markets’ volatility.
Semi-annual report presenting our return expectations for major asset classes over the next 5 to 30 years, as well as a series of charts on broad market and economic trends. These projections form the basis of NBI’s strategic asset allocation and portfolio construction efforts.
After an optimistic start to July, equities experienced a more turbulent period over the following two months, as volatility returned to the stock market. In fixed income, bond yields hit 15-year highs, leading to losses for the asset class. Finally, the third quarter was also characterized by a rally in the price of oil to its highest level since last November, and by a generalized appreciation of the U.S. dollar.
The suspension of the U.S. debt ceiling implies a marked increase in the issuance of Treasury bills and bonds over the coming months. Some investors fear that it could drain liquidity from the financial system, representing a considerable headwind for risky assets. Are those fears justified?
Tensions have escalated in the market following the flash debacle at Silicon Valley Bank, but, for now, the negative consequences are mostly seen within the already struggling regional US banking sector. Nevertheless, here is our update on the situation.